Economists and a security consultant are warning that, despite changes to Venezuela’s leadership in recent times, illegal migration from Venezuela to T&T will continue.
Thousands of Venezuelans in T&T continue to work and send money to family back home.
In 2024, Venezuelan economic consultancy Ecoanalítica—a consulting firm that specialises in economic and financial advisory services—estimated that remittances from the Venezuelan diaspora globally amounted to US$3 billion, or nearly three per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
A Los Angeles Times article in January reported that studies show that 80 per cent of Venezuelans outside the country are not interested in returning home at the moment.
Despite the abduction of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro by the United States military in January, there continues to be a flow of illegal migration from Venezuela into T&T and other countries.
While there had been expectations that political changes would create an environment that would allow Venezuelans to return to their homeland, that has not yet been achieved.
Years of economic crisis have fuelled illegal migration to T&T from Venezuela’s north-eastern states, such as Sucre and Delta Amacuro, which are among Venezuela’s poorest regions.
In an interview with the Business Guardian, economist Dr Ronald Ramkissoon said there are many factors in an economy that drive mass migration.
“Immigration from Venezuela is likely to fall in the long run but not in the short run. Migration from a country does not only depend on the lack of jobs in the home country but also on living conditions in that country such as food prices, housing conditions and the degree of political freedom. The extent of illegal migration also depends on the effectiveness of T&T’s border controls,” he explained.
He noted that many T&T nationals have also migrated in search of better economic opportunities in developed countries, and similar factors drive people to leave their home countries.
“It might stand to reason that the better the living conditions in a particular country, the less likely the phenomenon of ‘brain drain’ is likely to prevail. However, T&T and indeed the Caribbean have experienced the ‘brain drain’ phenomenon even in the presence of relatively high standards of living. Highly educated persons leave for what is considered even better living conditions, less crime, higher education, strong family relations, among other factors. However, it should be said that sometimes the perception of the so-called better life turns out to be an illusion,” he added.
Whether in T&T or Venezuela, he said migration would continue as long as people are dissatisfied with standards of living in struggling economies.
“Migration into and out of Trinidad and Tobago has always existed. I believe that there is not going to be any end to it. We must learn to work with it and to better manage the inflows and outflows,” Ramkissoon noted.
Economist Dr Anthony Gonzales also told the Business Guardian that Venezuela’s economy would take time to improve and warned against expecting a sharp reduction in migrants arriving on T&T’s shores in the foreseeable future.
“Investments in oil and gas will take some years to bear fruit. If, as it seems, companies are being encouraged to invest in Venezuela, then one could expect that in about two years oil production and exports will significantly increase. That will have positive multiplier effects on the economy, creating more jobs, forex, private businesses and government revenue. In that situation, fewer Venezuelans are expected to migrate,” he said.
