Fitch Ratings reaffirms Mexico’s rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook. We analyze the challenges of public debt, ongoing support for Pemex, and the impact of the 2026 World Cup on economic growth.
Mexico City – Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain Mexico’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook . This decision reflects a balance between macroeconomic management that the agency describes as “prudent” and a series of persistent challenges that limit the country’s long-term growth.
Despite trade uncertainties and internal reforms, Fitch projects that the Mexican economy will avoid scenarios of severe deterioration, although it warns that the path to a firm recovery still faces significant obstacles.
Strengths of the Mexican economy: Resilience in the face of adversity
The rating’s reaffirmation is based on the pillars that have provided stability to the country. Fitch highlighted the existence of sound external finances and a diversified economy , factors that have allowed Mexico to navigate adverse environments.
In 2024, the economy grew by 1.4%, and although growth moderated to 0.6% in 2025, these figures “exceeded expectations despite the adverse context of US protectionism, fiscal adjustment and internal institutional reforms” that had initially affected business confidence.
Structural risks: Debt and Governance
Not everything is stable. The rating agency warned about factors that could compromise Mexico’s financial health in the coming years:
- Moderate growth: A lack of long-term dynamism is observed.
- Institutional weakness: Governance indicators remain a weak point for the rating.
- Fiscal challenges: The low revenue base and budgetary rigidities limit the government’s room for maneuver.
- Public Debt: Fitch estimates that overall debt rose from 54.6% of GDP in 2025 and “will continue to increase to 58% in 2027” .
The Pemex factor: A “recurring” and necessary support
One of Fitch’s biggest concerns is the “contingent liabilities” of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Although the state-owned company received financial relief in 2025, the agency anticipates that the company “will require this support on a recurring basis” to stay afloat.
In addition to its financial situation, Pemex faces operational challenges following recent incidents, such as fires and floods, which have even affected the new Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco.
Inflation and Outlook for 2026
In the monetary sphere, Mexico faces inflationary pressures, with a rate of 4.59% recorded in March , while the Bank of Mexico has begun to ease its policy by cutting the interest rate to 6.75%. Although long-term inflation expectations stand at 3.7%—above the official target of 3%—Fitch notes that these have remained stable.
The impetus of the World Cup
The agency projects an acceleration of economic growth to 1.7% in 2026. This rebound is attributed to:
- The reduction of the negative effects of current fiscal and monetary policies.
- The “boost generated by the World Cup” .
However, this projection is subject to the uncertainty surrounding the review of the trade agreement (USMCA) between Mexico, the United States and Canada, a key event that will define investor confidence in the short term.
